Global Notebook Shipments Expected to Grow by 4.9% in 2025: Business Demand Emerges as a Key Driver

The global notebook market is set to experience a notable recovery in 2025, with shipments projected to grow by 4.9% to reach 183 million units. This growth is driven primarily by increased business demand, as companies upgrade their devices following the end-of-service for Windows 10. TrendForce, a leading market research firm, outlines several factors contributing to this anticipated growth.

Economic and Political Factors

The global notebook market faced challenges in 2024 due to high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties. However, the forecast for 2025 is more optimistic, with reduced political uncertainty following the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2024. These factors are expected to stimulate capital flow and boost business investments in new devices.

Business Demand and Device Upgrades

A key driver for the growth in notebook shipments is the demand for commercial device upgrades. As businesses prepare for the end-of-service for Windows 10, many are looking to replace their older devices with newer models that offer improved performance and security features. This trend is expected to continue throughout 2025, significantly contributing to the overall growth in shipments.

Consumer Market Trends

While business demand is a major factor, the consumer market also plays a role in the projected growth. In 2024, aggressive promotions and the dominance of entry-level models, particularly in North America, drove consumer notebook sales. For 2025, TrendForce predicts a more stable consumer market, with brands focusing on high-value, high-margin models. This shift in strategy is expected to optimize the product mix and support steady growth in consumer notebook shipments.

Impact of AI-Integrated Notebooks

Although the impact of AI-integrated notebooks on the overall market remains limited for now, TrendForce notes that AI features are expected to naturally integrate into notebook specifications as brands gradually incorporate them. This gradual integration will likely result in a steady rise in the penetration rates of AI notebooks, further driving market growth.

Regional Insights

The global notebook market is closely tied to U.S. trade policies, particularly the potential impact of heightened import tariffs under the "America First" policies introduced by the Trump administration. These measures could influence domestic demand in the U.S., pending the new administration's implementation of such policies. Additionally, China remains the dominant manufacturing hub for global notebook production, accounting for approximately 89% of total capacity. While some original design manufacturers (ODMs) are expanding production lines in Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Mexico, establishing a fully integrated supply chain ecosystem in these regions will require time.

Conclusion

The projected growth in global notebook shipments for 2025 reflects a combination of economic recovery, business demand for device upgrades, and evolving consumer market trends. As businesses and consumers continue to invest in new technology, the notebook market is poised for a positive trajectory. The integration of AI features and the focus on high-value models will further enhance the market's potential, making it an exciting time for the industry.